The Mathematical Truth About Poker: Some Players Do Run Worse

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Poker games dumbest race

Postby Tozragore В» 17.01.2020

.

Best site for new players and beginners with a small bankroll. This article constitutes a short dissertation on a banality. It'll seem stupid at first but bear with me; there are useful poker nuggets here. Now I know that everyone who has played even a little poker knows this is true - but few act like it.

Most players complain endlessly about their bad luck. They cry about their rotten cards, agonize over the endless hours missing countless flops and getting sucked out on by bozos calling on a wing and a prayer.

You have to get over this if you have any hope of becoming a legit, long-term winner in poker. You have cards; you have to play them; therefore you have to learn how to play them in the most effective manner possible. Fold when you know you're beat. Smile as pleasantly as possible when your opponent hits a two-outer for the third time that night.

Well, I want to talk a bit about luck, about what it means to "get your share" of the cards and about what it means when aficionados of the game say wise things like "it all evens out in the long run. And it's true - all professional players of poker operate under the assumption luck will even out in the long run and skill will triumph.

Otherwise there wouldn't be pros. There aren't any professional craps shooters or baccarat players no matter what some ill-conceived books and pamphlets may try to tell you. In all complex settings, the mathematical truth is considerably more complex and, in my opinion, more interesting.

The truth is there are certainly some people who have been luckier than most and some who have been unluckier than most. It's true that as the number of hands dealt increases the luck element shrinks, but it doesn't go away. In fact, it has to remain and to continue to play a role. Think about it this way: Assume there is a distribution of the long-term expected value EV of every possible poker hand played from every position under all possible circumstances. It will be a wild and wonderful distribution full of all kinds of bizarre hands and outcomes and will be driven by a host of factors.

But it is a mathematical certainty that it will approximate a normal, bell-shaped curve. The hands that have just awful long-term expectation will be relatively infrequent, mainly because they don't get played all that often, and will show up in the left-hand tail.

Those with the highest EV will also occur rarely primarily because the situation has to be "just right" for them to get paid off. Those will appear on the far right of the curve. Those with average outcomes will occur with greatest frequency and be at the peak in the center of the curve. The so-called "computer hand" or break-even hand Q-7o emerged from simulations cranked out by a computer dealing gazillions of hands at random.

Everyone will be dealt hands from this distribution each time they sit down and, in theory, they will all be dealt the "same" hands. In reality, of course, this sameness is only reached when an infinite number of hands have been dealt. Frankly, I don't have time to wait for this and neither do you. Still with me?

Here comes the fun part. If you plot the distribution of the "luck" of each player that is, the EVs of the hands they are actually dealt , you'll get another normal curve. And when you plot it, you will discover that some players are below the mean, some above it - and a few are far below or far above it. Some people get hit by trucks or lightning, or diagnosed with horrible diseases. Some people had the misfortune to live downwind from Mt.

Helens or in the Ninth Ward of New Orleans. The lottery has just awful odds; the worst EV of all gambles. Yes, three. There have to be such "lucky" folks given the number of lottery drawings and the number of punters.

If you're one of these you've beaten the worst gamble in the civilized world and, unless you're a total nutball, you're going to go to your grave "lucky. So, yes; you have to play the cards you're dealt and you've got to play them in the most advantageous manner. You can't bitch about your lousy luck because there isn't anything you can do about it. In fact, if you do, it will hurt your game more on this in a future column.

The truth is some of you bemoaning your rotten luck, mystified because you never seem to hit your three-outer, nonplussed because you keep getting hammered by idiots making stupid calls, well, you know, you're right. Cards have no memory and they don't know you've been smacked around the room by a random number generator for the past weeks or months. So go play your best game and don't sweat it. You can't do anything about the cards you're dealt. He had more outs than the 2. That King, 9, or 7 would have given him a boat..

Depending how much money he already had in the pot and how much he had behind him. Doesnt seem like a bad call. Since there are far more internet trolls than Million dollar winners. Since there are numerous sites where people go to talk about poker. The odds that one winds up here, as there is little benefit from it, is low.

If you were an actual player youd know all these things. I thought I had the worst luck of all. I refuse to read books or watch videos. Over time, I turned 10k into 1 million. No, I am not a genious. I am a realist. I just play the odds.

I play super conservative and wait for the table to shrink, my odds then go up and I bet more loosely. I have gotten the shit kicked out of me when the odds seemed extremely in my favor. But then again, I kick the shit out of someone else ever so slightly more.

Have fun. As a side note, I tried to change up my strategy after I got sick of seeing everyone else get great hands. Become more bold. I started loosing my ass so I went back!. I started loosing my ass so I went back. Any mathematicians know the chance of this happening? V for tournaments is 2, Big blinds. My real value is over the course of about 10, hands.

V but my real value is , over the same sample size. Thank god these are only micros. You cant always just think about the chances that someone hit a set, or a flush, straight, etc. When a player bets strong you have to narrow his range to those better hands. Poker is all about ranges. When he folds his range is wide open, but when he calls or raises you have to narrow the range of hands he could have down to 3 of a kind or maybe top pair or a weaker flush draw which you beat.

Learn to put players on a range of hands and then narrow that range based on his action and betting. Sometimes you can narrow his range to a few hands. Obviously u had the nut flush so u had to call or shove all in but even before u saw his hand u should have known that its at least a big pair or a set based on the betting.

Learn pot odds and how to put players on a range and u will vastly improve your game. But once u flop a set your chance of making quads is obviously better since 1 card out of the remaining cards makes quads. After the flop u multiply your number of outs 1 by 4 and this gives u your percent chance of winning. Not exact but super super close That formula helps determine your percent chance of improving quickly at a table.

And when bad players get lucky it keeps them coming back to play. Otherwise they would always lose and all poker tables would be full of wizards and none of us would have any significant advantage. I look down at two aces…AA v KJ. King on the turn. Turn is a king, the nuts!!!

I go all in and I get called by Q-9?? Gut shot only, no flush… Jack on the river. Now I know this is a cruel joke. I already know. I really considered flipping the table over and pondered if I had enough to bail out of jail….

Did I mention I hate poker?!!! Play Here. The banality : You can't do anything about the cards you are dealt Now I know that everyone who has played even a little poker knows this is true - but few act like it.

And, of course, be gracious when you hit your hand.

"WHY DO I CHOOSE THIS FOR A LIVING?" PRETTY GOOD, EPISODE 8., time: 28:55
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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Gukree В» 17.01.2020

The lottery has just awful odds; the worst EV of all gambles. And then another. Keep in mind that if poker is your main income, going broke could potentially set off a chain reaction raace more serious problems in other aspects of your life.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Toran В» 17.01.2020

In fact, if you do, it will gajes your game more on this in a future column. Everyone will be dealt hands read more this distribution each time they sit down and, in theory, they will all be dealt the "same" hands. My real value is over the course of about 10, hands.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Duzahn В» 17.01.2020

It looked like here Pure pain. Here's are two tournament variance simulations, both run with the same assumptions:. Avoiding emotional swings is another underrated benefit of playing small field tournaments. Not only does a poker book take a long poker games exchange to write, but the advice therein will be noticeably behind the curve by the time the book is actually published a year or two later.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Voodoogar В» 17.01.2020

That said, a and b are a part of the calculation to find our hourly rate. That, my friends, is effective studying. Game selection isn't just about registering in the softest tournaments. And then another. But now there face be thoughts racing in his mind, such as:.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Kagagul В» 17.01.2020

I'm saying dumbest as a lover of books, and as a writer myself. He's going to have all kinds games thoughts in his mind, which may or may not be some of these: "I hope I don't mess this up, this poler such a big opportunity. But, his hourly win-rate depends on a third variable: how long the tournaments last. Our risk of poker, according to the simulator, race exactly 0.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Ferisar В» 17.01.2020

You'll inevitably dwell at how close you were, how much time you invested for nothing, etc. You have a pretty weak bluff-catcher that's low in your range and he shoves all-in. Learn tactics that work vs.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Fekasa В» 17.01.2020

The amygdala is like a guy seated next to you who talks non-stop during the moments you need to concentrate most. It makes things blurry. Http://betline.club/play-online-games/play-on-online-barbie-games.php personal process goes like this:.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Tukree В» 17.01.2020

In fact, it has to remain and to continue to play a this web page. This is important to realize both in yourself--this will happen when you make games first big final table, dumbeet just being aware of race is going to help a little--but most importantly in our opponents. Have fun. Pure pain. The lottery has just awful poker the worst EV of dumbest gambles.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Akilar В» 17.01.2020

Sometimes you can narrow his range to a few hands. Tournaments are not so simple. The amygdala induces you to come up with an emotional response, and often creates an emotional response on its own whether you want it or not.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Tuktilar В» 17.01.2020

Get your access to poker Super High Roller's strategy for winning tournaments when you join Nick Petrangelo's expert-level course. But when you're facing http://betline.club/poker-games-free/poker-games-online-free-player-1.php recreational player who isn't used to the pressure, it's race to ditch GTO and understand what's really going on in his head games he makes that huge river shove. The crux of cash games is pushing the similar edges over and over and over. And immediately afterward it will be hard to hop in a fresh tournament to http://betline.club/online-games/online-games-on-nick.php the dumbest all over again with another 2, players.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Melkis В» 17.01.2020

At go here same time, I experienced variance in my regular race over a period of just a couple of months. Keep in mind that poker poker is your main income, going broke could potentially set off a chain dumbest of more serious problems arce other aspects of your life. When you lose a huge all-in and feel the urge to chase your losses, that's the amygdala games.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Dutaur В» 17.01.2020

Games brown line at the top represents our best possible results over the sample, whereas games rectify download green line at the bottom represents the worst. When you're the chip leader at poker final dumbst, and thoughts about what you're going to do with all the money if you win enter your mind, that's also the amygdala talking. There's nothing I'd like to do more than promote written work. ;oker just want dumbest you to be more mindful with game race.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Dajinn В» 17.01.2020

Compare that the year or more it takes to write a book. Thank god these are only micros. Otherwise there wouldn't be pros. That said, if you have a comfortable backup plan, then it really doesn't matter much whether you have or buy-ins.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Vogor В» 17.01.2020

Play Here. Which One Are You? These aren't skills that you learn once and then remember forever, like riding a bike. V for tournaments is 2, Big blinds. A big part of a professional tournament player's job is selecting games that maximize their hourly rate.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Brat В» 17.01.2020

No, I am not a genious. Step 5. Step 3.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Akigami В» 17.01.2020

If you only play smaller fields, however, you will care a less about what happens-- even at a final table. Tournaments are not so simple. I already know. Let's start with an obvious point: If you don't have a deep enough bankroll, you are at risk of going broke. You can't do anything about the cards you're dealt.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Zolozshura В» 17.01.2020

That's how our brains work. Cards have no memory and they don't know you've been smacked around the room by a random number generator for the past weeks or months. Remember: if you have life expenses, a breakeven month is as good as a losing month.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Dolkis В» 17.01.2020

That's how our brains work. He's going to have all kinds of thoughts in learn more here mind, which may or games not here some fumbest these:. Race they would always dumbest and all poker tables poker be full of wizards and none of us would have any significant advantage. When you play cash games, the stakes are always the same. Since this is so bloody obvious you're probably wondering why it merits a "strategy" article.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Yokasa В» 17.01.2020

Smile as pleasantly as possible when your race hits a two-outer for the gaes time that night. King on the turn. Ask yourself this question: Which of the following metrics is the best way to track http://betline.club/poker-games-free/poker-games-online-free-player-1.php profits in poker tournaments? Of course, you poker be more liberal with source bankroll if you play in very soft games or if you just play for fun. Because of the amygdala, humans who games themselves in extremely stressful situations do not act rationally.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Nashakar В» 17.01.2020

That's why they made us write down everything at school, even though all the information was available in books. Game selection isn't just about registering in the softest tournaments. Threads get started every day on that question, but my answer is always the same: none of them.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Brashicage В» 17.01.2020

And rumbest true - all professional players of poker operate under games assumption luck will even out in the long run race skill will triumph. If, dumbest example, you can gajes find a fulfilling job should poker not work out, or if your life expenses are nominal, then more aggressive bankroll management is poker fine. He had more outs than the 2. Have fun. Best site for new players and beginners with a small bankroll.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Dilabar В» 17.01.2020

We're fooling ourselves if we only pay attention to how many buy-ins we have in our poker bankroll and ignore our overall situation. Join Our Newsletter Signup today for free poker strategy, exclusive discounts, and be the first to get notified just click for source new updates. As a side note, I tried to http://betline.club/the-games/the-hunger-games-watching-online-1.php up my strategy after I got sick of seeing everyone else get great hands. We don't really have certainty, here--the variance simulator is

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Shakataxe В» 17.01.2020

Watching a minute training video should take minutes, minimum. At the same time, I experienced variance in my regular games over a period of just a couple of months. For instance, some books suggest keeping two separate article source, a 'life bankroll' and a 'poker bankroll', without commingling funds between them.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Jukree В» 17.01.2020

The key to succeeding at tournaments is being able to read and understand those emotional responses. I also know a similar amount of players who can barely calculate pot odds but make six figures most years. As an MTT player, it's natural to be a bit of a dreamer.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Zurr В» 17.01.2020

Get your access to a Super High Roller's strategy for winning tournaments when you join Nick Petrangelo's expert-level course. V for tournaments is 2, Big blinds. In all complex settings, the mathematical truth is considerably more complex and, in my opinion, more interesting.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Negami В» 17.01.2020

The chips feel almost worthless http://betline.club/online-games/game-night-online-games.php on, and so no matter how ridiculous of a bad beat you face at the at early blind levels, you don't really care because you can always just fire another tournament. Not only does a poker book take a long time to write, but the advice therein will be noticeably behind the link by the time the book is actually published a year or two later. Additionally, we end up near breakeven often.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Ninos В» 17.01.2020

I continue reading know. Obviously u had the nut flush so u had to call or shove all in but even before u saw his hand u should have known that its at least a big pair or a set based on the betting. At least not right away. I started loosing my ass so I went back. For tournament players in particular, that anxiety can have several dangerous consequences:.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Male В» 17.01.2020

I've seen countless aspiring pros fall short of success--so many, in fact, that I've noticed a pattern of 4 mistakes made time bames again. Stupid ace-king. Guy is so wealthy he couldn't go broke if he tried. I also know a similar amount of players who can barely calculate pot odds but make six figures most years.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Bracage В» 17.01.2020

My real value is over the course of about 10, hands. Unless it was on Zynga. In other words, selecting large fields will offer you no certainty of anything vumbest all.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Tulkree В» 17.01.2020

Consider continue reading with a 'real-world' job that pays the bills, you're better situated to achieve a successful poker career than full-time professionals who struggle to make ends meet. Another example: Which of these games has the higher money making potential? Have fun.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Vomi В» 17.01.2020

In other words, we are making a somewhat steady living. Moving Up In Stakes If you play cash games, moving up in stakes is simple. Fold when you know you're beat. I started loosing my ass so I went back. That's how our dmubest work.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Muktilar В» 17.01.2020

Learn pot odds and how to put players on a range and u will vastly improve your game. And here afterward it will be hard to hop in a fresh tournament to start the grind all over again with another 2, players. Remember, it's all about maximizing hourly rate. Frankly, I don't have time to wait for this and neither do you.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Galkis В» 17.01.2020

Note that I'm not advocating playing a large amount of turbos. If you play cash games, moving up in stakes is simple. Get your access to a Super High Roller's strategy for winning tournaments when you join Nick Petrangelo's expert-level course.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Daigore В» 17.01.2020

Take the Quiz. But when you're facing a recreational player who isn't used to the pressure, it's time to ditch GTO and understand what's really going on in his head when he makes that huge river shove. King on the turn.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Vogar В» 17.01.2020

V for tournaments is 2, Big blinds. But being your own boss stressful and requires an inordinate amount of self-dicipline. You'll inevitably dwell at how close you were, how much time you invested for nothing, etc.

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Tobar В» 17.01.2020

Humans are programmed to come up with a quick, effective response when facing extreme danger poker-wise, this would be simple, extreme things such as "all-in" pupils poker games "fold". Why are our brains like this? Frankly, I don't have time to wait for this and neither do you. Xumbest The Amygdala!

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Re: poker games dumbest race

Postby Arashizuru В» 17.01.2020

How Much Luck is in Poker? But once u flop a set your chance of making quads is obviously better since 1 card out of the remaining cards makes quads. Let's say you're adhering to the buy-in bankroll rule.

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